During the late 1700s, death rates had declined. New technologies in agriculture production and improvements in health and sanitation enabled more people to live through their adolescent years. These factors led to a rise in the average life expectancy and development of a new path for population growth. Over the past three centuries, the relationship between birth and death rates has continuously affected the change in demographics of country. The observations and documentation of the demographic changes aided demographers to develop Demographic Transition Model. The model is based on historical population trends of birth rate and death rate demographic characteristics (Wilson, 2007).
Phase 1: In this demographic transition phase, Agrarian civilizations (primitive phase) are characterized by constant or slowly growing populations with crude birth rates (CBR) greater than 45 per 1000 and crude death rates greater (CDR) than 35 per 1000 births. Agricultural activities favor large families. However, high birth rates are at equilibrium with the high death rates as the result of diseases, famine, war, etc. causing in low progress in population growth. The transition phase characterized Europe up to the 19th century while for the developing countries to early 20th century (Dyson, 2010).
Phase II: Improved availability of quality basic needs and advances in sanitation and lead to a decrease in death rate and growth in life expectancy. This has typically happened without an instantaneous change in birth rate. However, the better conditions of life may favor the growth of fertility. In this phase of the demographic transition, the CDR quickly plummets, while the CBR remains crudely the same as in Phase I. During this period, a noticeable excess of births over deaths advanced leading to a rapid growth of population. This condition characterized developed countries in the mid-19th century while the slightest developed countries could be considered on phase II by the late 20th century.
Phase III. The phase marks a notable drop in birth rates while death rates appear to level (late expanding). A county moves from Phase II to Phase III of the demographic transition model when the Crude Birth Rate begins to drop suddenly. The Crude Death Rate continues to fall in Phase III but at a reduced rate than in Phase III. The population constantly to grow as the CBR remains greater than the CDR. Industrialization and urban development mean less need for labor. These factors are also related with changes in socioeconomic partialities where consumption takes a more significant role. Higher costs of urban life are incentives for lesser families with the contraception for family planning being widely available. Most developing economies are in phase III (Dyson, 2010).
Phase IV. This phase indicates that a new equilibrium has been derived from birth and death rates characterized by stabilization of the population. A country reaches phase IV of the demographic transition model when the Crude Birth Rate Declines to equal the Crude Death Rate and the NIR moving to zero. This condition known as zero population growth (ZPG).Modern (postindustrial) societies are recognized with low death rates as medicine is available. Nearly all of developed economies have reached this demographic transition phase by the late 20th century and some developing economies like China and Brazil are likely to achieve it (Cervellati, 2007).
According to demographers, sudden decline of the CBR during Phase three occurs as a result of different reasons than the quick decline of CDR during Phase two. The CDR declined in Phase two after the introduction of modern technology into the society. The CBR declines in Phase three as a result of changes in social customs (Williamson, 2006).
Comparing Developed countries in phase 4 with developing countries in other phases
When comparing developed countries in phase four and developing countries in other phases you must consider factors such as living and environmental condition. Among the living conditions that positively or negatively influence a developed or developing country is how the people live. These conditions include the use of their modern technology and the sanitary level of the environment. Advancement in technological and architectural designs that is available in a phase four countries have made them a cleaner society. The developing in other phases have no access to the same required, or same technology and, therefore, their environment is not as clean as the countries that had reached phase four (McKinney et al., 2007). The other concern is the environment and factors that could cause damage to it such natural disasters. Developed countries that are in phase four have adequate plans and procedures in place to ensure that respond effectively in case of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Developing countries in other phases four have a difficult time when confronted with natural disaster. They have not adequate plans and technology needed to ensure less damage and quick recovery. The third issue of consideration is the medical advancement with developed countries in phase four. They have access to clean water, healthy nutrition, medicines, and healthcare professionals. This is among the factor that increase life expectancy and in the process reduces the Crude Death Rate because the population is healthy. Developing countries have less medical advances, and thus they have higher Crude Death Rate. They struggle to get clean water and adequate nutritional food. They also have limited access to medicines and healthcare profession to treat and even cure the diseases.
In developing countries that face more unstable international markets, it is important to increase the production and resiliency of food. One program that supports developing countries to have food security is the Global Agriculture & Food Security Program (GAFSP).The program is drawing commendation from various donors, recipients, and civil society. GAFSP was started April 2010 upon the request of G20 and is administered by World Bank. The program has transformational strategies to aid targeted to helping developing countries make long-term developments through sustainable investment in agriculture that will achieve food security.
Dyson, T., & Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain). (2010). Population and development: The demographic transition. London: Zed.
Cervellati, M. (2007). Human capital, mortality and fertility: a unified theory of the economic and demographic transition. Bonn: IZA.
McKinney, M. L., Schoch, R. M., & Yonavjak, L. (2007). Environmental science: Systems and solutions. Sudbury, Mass: Jones and Bartlett.Williamson, P. (2006). Population and society. London: SAGE.
Wilson, G. A. (2007). Multifunctional agriculture: A transition theory perspective. Wallingford: CABI.
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