The climate of Hong Kong city is more temperate, nearly the whole year, because of its sub-tropical nature. It experiences a cold breeze in the moths of November and December, with daily sunshine and warmer temperatures. It receives visitors during these months because the other months are characterized by clouds, cold and temperatures below 10 degrees, there are however territories of Hong Kong that experience snow and frost. There is high humidity during the months of March and April, making it foggy with drizzles everywhere. The drizzles and fog hamper the ferry services and road transport in the region(Aguado.etal,2014). The months of May and august are humid and hot, with showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures are always above 31 degrees, unlike the night temperatures which sharply fall. July is a fairly dry month. Cyclones affect Hong Kong in the months of July and September. The tropical cyclones are from the north pacific and the Chinese seas. The cyclones are often so strong and destructive. This essay applies the climate models to explain the correlation between the increased temperatures with increased occurrence of tropical cyclones.
A 2005 study by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) to discover the projections of the rainfalls for HongKong, was done based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (IPCC), which complied several reports including, a resolution for the development of more complex models that could handle data sets that kept emerging. This essay uses the IPCC scenario(RCP4.5)model for its climate analysis. Multi -ensemble means, is defined as the studies on sets of stimulations, from diverse models, with a guarantee of one condition ensembles are existing for every model. The adoption of the model enables the comparison of various climatic projections.RCP4.5 is used as a mitigation measure, used in the stabilization of the radiative forces.
The understanding of the temperature variation and how human activities can affect it is useful in understanding human activities in HongKong, that are likely to be causing the change in the climate. The historical records in the data indicate that there have been increased monthly temperatures.CM6,7 and 8 have been used in the analysis of temperature in Hong Kong. Figure 2 from the worked-out HK data in the model Shows a calculation between the predicted temperature and the actual temperature as experienced(Johnson.etal,2015). There are anomalies in the data, with the trendlines being lower than the actual, by 1 degree. Figure 3, indicates rising trends of temperature. The models are correlating to the real case, with high R2 value and p-value being lower in all models. The Paris agreement highlights the to embrace climate finance to enable adaptation and mitigation of the drastically changing, climate not only in Hong Kong but in the entire globe. The goal of the agreement is to offer support to the parties that can be highly affected(Richardson,2018). The models are essential in understanding the adverse climate events likely to affect Hong Kong. Polar front theory, used during the onset world war II has been used to explain the formation of cyclones and their patterns(Christoff,2016). Hong Kong predicts the occurrence of destructive cyclones, referred to as typhoons. The data from the monitoring agency shows a trend in the occurrence of typhoons. Urban effects such as the release of harmful gases to the air,
Several factors are affecting Hong Kong's climate. The variations that are substantial across the global climatic zones. There is a local factor that affects the distribution of climatic conditions. Scales are also local factors to be considered, The calculated HK monthly data shows that there are expected disruption in patters that are predicted in a forecast. Scales such the synoptic, mesoscales and micro scales. Other factors include differential processes and disturbances and data support. Energy and moisture controls such as topographical features and the closeness to large water bodies .moisture control results from human activities and largely disrupts the climate. Hong Kong records a monthly temperature that varies with as low as 15 degrees Celcius, and 20 Celcius during the winter of December to February. The sunshine is not guaranteed and the foggy weather can lead to the lowering of the temperatures to 10/15 degrees Celcius. According to the data, the temperatures shot to 30 degrees and it never falls. The temperatures are recorded to be moderately 24/25 degrees. Figure five indicates an increased occurrence of cyclones in the 7th,8th and the 9th months of the year. According to the forecasting researchers concerned with the formation of cyclones, human activities are driving climate change making storms and typhoons even more destructive(Wells,2016). Models formed in the past have shown that people are reluctant, thinking that climate change especially in cities like Hong Kong, is abstract and dependent on external factors, such as the presence of water bodies(Bennet,2005). Figure one is a representation of the formation of cyclones, and the distances they covered in kilometers(KM). There is an increased distance of 1 km with an increase of 10mm of rain per day. The rains are a result of increased temperatures, which affect the rate of vaporization.Massive industrial fossil fuel usage, in industries, is likely to make the effects even more harmful, as recorded in the model. The temperatures increase over time in Hong Kong and are associated with human activities. The high temperatures heat the ocean water. Warmer air holds up more moisture making it hold more water. The increased temperatures raise the alarm, as the effects can be severe in the future. Changing temperatures are also weakening the currents in the atmosphere.
The essay, determines the use of the multi-ensemble climate model, to forecast and analyze the climate trends and projections in HongKong.The predictions, for instance on the possibilities of an increased temperature by 1C, are largely related to human activities in the region. There is a need for the adoption of methods in industries that can lead to the reduction of emission of gases, which are resulting in summer heats and potential risky typhoons, that are risky. The historical analysis of changes in temperature changes in Hong Kong and the data correlates to the occurrence of cyclones. It also correlates to the data on the industrial growth and expansion of infrastructure. It concludes that HongKong is likely to experience more server typhoons in the future, provided that no mitigation strategies are applied.
Aguado, E. & Burt, J.E. (2014). Understanding Weather & Climate. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
Bennett, A. F. (2005). Inverse modeling of the ocean and atmosphere. Cambridge University Press. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=D2PY5nhhP6MC&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=%E2%80%A2%09Chapter+10+Mathematical+Modelling+of+the+Ocean+and+Atmosphere&ots=oPD-IHmxsE&sig=4eJVg5_mYrjGen6ehS54Vt8oaDc
Christoff, P. (2016). The promissory note: COP 21 and the Paris Climate Agreement. Environmental Politics, 25(5), 765-787. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2016.1191818
Johnson, L., Becker, S. A., Estrada, V., & Freeman, A. (2015). NMC horizon report: 2015 library edition (pp. 1-54). The New Media Consortium. https://www.learntechlib.org/p/151822/
Richardson, D. (2018). Medium-and extended-range ensemble weather forecasting. In Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry (pp. 109-121). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://www.oapen.org/download?type=document&docid=1002055#page=128
Wells, N. (2016). The atmosphere and ocean: a physical introduction. Oceanographic Literature Review, 6(44), 652. https://www.infona.pl/resource/bwmeta1.element.elsevier-10cd3ba2-fd19-3f9f-8cda-2ed3059e2326
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